Off the Record (OTR)

Poll: Obama lead lessens, except where it expands

A recent OTR poll has revealed some stunning statistics in this year’s 2012 election, much of it standing in sharp contrast to previous 2012 elections. In many key swing states, Governor Mitt Romney has gained significant points among registered voters who aren’t likely to vote. He’s now trailing President Barack Obama by just one point, 47-46% amongst these people who will probably stay home on election day. This is a key demographic. What’s more significant is that most are Democrats, although many are also Republicans. The Obama camp is now scrambling with the release of these numbers, as he was up 47-45% only yesterday, and they aren’t sure if there is any way possible that these numbers could change over the course of four weeks.

In Ohio, Obama is destroying Romney 89-15%, with a margin of error at about +/-3.2-3.3%. The fact that the percentage totals don’t add up to 100%, shows you just how critical it is for either candidate to take Ohio if they want to win the election. However, in that same state of Ohio, the poll found that Romney has an eight-point lead of his own, in the same exact demographic that indicated Obama had a huge lead. In other words, the same people were polled in both polls. Twice.

The new poll also indicates that Governor Romney both trails and leads the president in Florida. You can see why this is such a dead heat nationally.

OTR also found that polls themselves are viewed favorably by 60% of South Carolinians, while 37% of the people in Texas view them unfavorably, and 10% of people in Southwestern Missouri are undecided. However, that poll has been attacked by some on the left as biased. Some on the right also had this and that to say about polls. Independents were in agreement 65% of the time nationally.

Overall, the poll found that Obama has lost most of his lead in places where his poll numbers are hurting. In places where his poll numbers are surging, he’s actually expanding that lead and winning. If both of these trends continue, he’s in danger of losing the election if he doesn’t win it outright.

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